Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.095317 0.109299 0.124508 0.142265 0.162414 0.184551 0.210702
2026-02-08 0.073081 0.091005 0.112040 0.138495 0.170822 0.208983 0.257392
2026-02-15 0.056663 0.076203 0.100813 0.133960 0.177311 0.231933 0.305827
2026-02-22 0.047108 0.068131 0.096426 0.137062 0.193662 0.269400 0.378079
2026-03-01 0.037233 0.057807 0.087342 0.132468 0.199235 0.293846 0.437407
2026-03-08 0.029966 0.049808 0.080105 0.129206 0.206127 0.321157 0.505065
2026-03-15 0.024316 0.043164 0.073700 0.126053 0.212639 0.348874 0.577639
2026-03-22 0.021040 0.039721 0.071708 0.129488 0.229953 0.395573 0.686436
2026-03-29 0.017724 0.035540 0.067733 0.128909 0.240539 0.432990 0.785776
2026-04-05 0.015348 0.032592 0.065387 0.130761 0.255585 0.479979 0.908071
2026-04-12 0.013426 0.030129 0.063487 0.133085 0.271816 0.531268 1.045180
2026-04-19 0.011071 0.026274 0.058173 0.127851 0.272853 0.554921 1.134859
2026-04-26 0.008903 0.022400 0.052215 0.120511 0.269089 0.570041 1.212870
2026-05-03 0.007398 0.019691 0.048224 0.116618 0.271830 0.598492 1.321817
2026-05-10 0.006130 0.017252 0.044353 0.112272 0.272892 0.623758 1.428253
2026-05-17 0.005449 0.016143 0.043388 0.114507 0.289122 0.683645 1.617198
2026-05-24 0.004551 0.014224 0.040044 0.110348 0.289786 0.709528 1.735400
2026-05-31 0.003856 0.012698 0.037383 0.107393 0.292852 0.741325 1.871743
2026-06-07 0.003279 0.011367 0.034962 0.104589 0.295815 0.773324 2.013253
2026-06-14 0.002979 0.010815 0.034601 0.107340 0.313675 0.843882 2.257551
2026-06-21 0.002614 0.009954 0.033161 0.106759 0.322516 0.893286 2.456395
2026-06-28 0.002354 0.009379 0.032463 0.108233 0.337345 0.960196 2.709218
2026-07-05 0.002135 0.008889 0.031929 0.110117 0.353708 1.033517 2.988930